Prices for rapeseed and sunflower seed in the European Union are expected to fall in 2022/23 from high levels this season, curbed by bigger projected harvests and continuing imports from war-torn Ukraine, consultancy Strategie Grains said.
Rapeseed futures on Euronext hit an all-time record this year as Russia's invasion of Ukraine worsened supply tensions in global oilseed and vegetable oil markets.
For rapeseed, the average price in Hamburg could reach about $665 a tonne in 2022/23, which would be down $160, or a drop of nearly 20%, compared to 2021/22, Strategie Grains said in a monthly report.
It raised its forecast for this year's EU rapeseed harvest to 18.3 million tonnes, from 18.2 million a month ago and now nearly 8% above last year's crop.
Increased Area Estimates
The upward revision reflected good yield prospects in the Czech Republic and the Baltic states, as well as increased area estimates for Sweden and France, it said in an oilseed report.
The consultancy trimmed its projection of EU rapeseed stocks at the end of 2022/23 due to a lack of competitiveness for Canadian imports and high expected rapeseed crushing as margins remain attractive.
But EU rapeseed stocks would still be less tight than in the current season, while rapeseed oil supplies would be balanced given slowing demand for biodiesel, it said.