European Commission Cuts Ireland's Economic Forecast For 2019

By Publications Checkout
European Commission Cuts Ireland's Economic Forecast For 2019

The European Commission has released its latest winter forecasts for Ireland, where it revised downwards its growth predictions.

The Commission has now forecast that the economy will grow by 4.1% this year, noting the lower-than-expected carry over from 2018, which added to the revised estimate.

It also cited the ongoing decline in confidence, economic uncertainty and global trade tensions as influencing factors.

This new figure is a drop from its previous projection of 4.5%, which it made in November last year.

It has also downgraded Ireland’s expected GDP growth for 2020, revising it down by 0.1% to 3.7%.


It said that robust employment developments, stronger wage growth, and weak inflation are set to further support private consumption.

Increasing Uncertainty

For 2018, it estimated that real GDP growth was 6.8%, which is 1% under its estimate in November.

It said that this reflects weaker-than-expected growth in the third quarter and downward revisions to GDP statistics for the first half of the year.

‘The economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. This relates primarily to the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU,’ the report read.

‘As a highly open economy, Ireland is also particularly exposed to changes in the international taxation and trade environment.


‘The huge impact of the often unpredictable activities of multinationals, could drive headline growth either up or down.’

© 2019 Checkout – your source for the latest Irish retail news. Article by Aidan O’Sullivan. Click subscribe to sign up for the Checkout print edition. 

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