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Irish Food Exports To Fall By 30% In No-Deal Brexit Scenario, Study Finds

Published on Oct 1 2020 8:18 AM in Supply Chain tagged: Ireland / Brexit / London School of Economics

Irish Food Exports To Fall By 30% In No-Deal Brexit Scenario, Study Finds

Irish food exports look set to fall by around 29.9%, while imports will drop by 33.6% in a no-deal Brexit scenario, a new report has revealed.

The Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit report, published by the London School of Economics, found that the Ireland is 'likely to be the most negatively affected' market in terms of food trade, in the event of no deal being struck, The Irish Times reported.

Even in the event of a free trade agreement, food exports are likely to drop by 11.1%, with food imports falling by 12.6%, the paper said.

The next worst affected country by a potential no-deal Brexit is Cyprus, which is forecast to see a 17% decline in food exports, while Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark are also likely to be affected.

One of the report's authors, Nikhil Datta, noted that if the original withdrawal agreement relating to trade between the Republic and Northern Ireland is maintained, then Irish food trade may not be as badly affected, the paper added.

“If the Border is between Northern Ireland and the Republic, there will be a large hit. If all the trade is predominantly staying on the island and the Border is on the Irish Sea, then the impact might not be as great,” Datta commented.

The Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit report was commissioned by Arla Foods UK, and follows on from a report issued by the London School of Economics in July 2018 on the impact of Brexit on the UK dairy sector.

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